The White Paper, immigration, automation.

In press releases leading up to the recent White Paper Getting Britain Working, Labour frontbenchers argued that the high levels of economic inactivity, particularly the increased number of NEETs, prevents the UK economy from growing. The question is whether the various support measures outlined in the WP are likely to backed up by more detailed proposals to withhold welfare (particularly sickness) benefits from those not taking up ‘opportunities’ to re-join the labour market. In addition, it’s reported Liz Kendall is now considering measures to encourage people with potential health issues not to leave jobs (!)

All this comes at a time when Labour is running scared as Nigel Farage and Reform blame the UKs economic and social problems on high level of immigration (though it’s overseas students who comprise the largest group of those coming into the UK).  Labour’s response is the almost inevitable ‘we’ll train our own workers’.  But at best, this will have marginal effects. 

A few thousand people (at most) may be coaxed, at huge expense, into relatively low-skilled jobs, (nobody is going to move from sickness benefits to ‘big tech’!) and not necessarily in sectors where there are shortages.  Also, in an economic downturn, continued flatlining or the withdrawal of subsidies to employers, they’ll be the first to be ‘let go’, as is always the case with a ‘reserve army of labour’.

But calls – particularly from the Right, to automate rather than immigrate, need refuting. Research shows that automation is more likely to replace labour in routine and semi-skilled ‘middle jobs’ helping to create a ‘polarised’ occupational structure, – though advances in AI suggest that more and more ‘professional’ work will be at risk.

It’s far more difficult, to automate work in sectors needing high degrees of personal contact.  Nothing could be more the case than with the adult social care sector – which accounts for over 1 in 8 of all vacancies, three times that for the economy as a whole. Well over 100,000 posts are vacant, but just over 50,000 care worker visas were granted in the year up to June 2024.

It’s also far more expensive and outside the reaches of many smaller organisations with relatively low profit margins and budgets. And it’s fair to say that customers and clients are much happier or at least more relaxed dealing with human beings!

The way to deal with labour shortages in adult social care, without depending on imported workers, not that there’s anything wrong with this in itself, is to increase pay (you can earn more in an Amazon fulfilment centre) and establish proper employment conditions that allow career progression, reducing the high turnover rates – 40% in some care homes. But this would necessitate Labour having a wider sectorial plan. It doesn’t have one.