Young people and support for Reform.

Although Generation Z (all those born in the late 1990s to 2010) is known for its diverse and evolving political views, generally it’s seen as more liberal compared to older generations. Tending to back progressive causes (particularly action on climate change) it is considered to lean left. It’s dependency on social media (the ‘zoomers’) and increased attendance at university is also said to have liberalised its horizons –  though the effective use of TikTok style platforms by far-right interests and the division between those who go to university and those who do not, counteract this. It’s also the case that a number of far-right forces in Europe have been able to build significant bases, while Trump won support from large numbers of young voters.

The first major YouGov survey on voting intentions since last year’s general election makes for some thoughtful reading. For the under 24-year-olds, it shows Labour at 36% – compared to 41% at the GE, with the Greens up at 22% compared with their GE 18%. The Tories are down to just 5%. The survey earned media attention by putting Reform (Trump UK) in second place at 25% in the population generally, compared to Labour on 26% and the Tories on 22.  Amongst the under 25’s support for Reform was up to 19% compared with 9% at the GE.

At the last election Reform promised to stop charging interest on student loans, extend the amount of time graduates pay off loans from 30 to 45 years and reform training to help 16-to 34-year-olds into work, while any business taking on apprenticeships would pay less tax. It called for a “patriotic school curriculum”, a review the content of history lessons and a “ban on transgender ideology in schools”. Yet it’s questionable whether many of its young voters would be aware of any detailed policy; with support for Reform and its anti-establishment vibes as much a reflection of the lack of confidence in mainstream politics than a definitive move to the right. (Remember, only 1 in 20 are backing the Tories).

The well above average levels of support for the Greens (and Labour) amongst those those young people with higher levels of education, but also amongst women; provides a sober picture of where potential Reform support is coming from. But at the same time, the number in this age group in the YouGov survey who refused to commit or said they wouldn’t or didn’t know who to vote for, totalled 38% – much higher than for other groups.   While the total 2024 GE turn-out of was down to below 60%, only 37% of under 25s managed to vote (compared to 73% of those 65+). This was well down on the 54% of under 25-year-olds who voted in 2019 – a similar figure to 2017 where 61% voted for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.

More concerned about how interest rates in the gilts market will undermine its fiscal rules and relying on clear hostility towards the Tories, from young people, Labour thinks it can ignore this disengagement, not to mention the mounting difficulties facing more and more young people. It can’t.