It’s a difficult time to be a graduate. Thousands of debt laden young people leave university this summer, aware that it’s increasingly difficult to find employment commensurate with their qualifications – surveys report over a hundred applicants for each vacancy and employers turning to AI bots to sift through candidates.
Previous comment on this blog has focused on how young people have suffered in a UK higher education sector, which has expanded at a faster rate than the increase in graduate jobs. This ‘overproduction’ of graduates has undoubtably been fuelled by false expectations about new ‘globalised’ opportunities, notably the Blairite claims of the 1990s that the new global economy would require a general upskilling of the population and those with low level qualifications would by implication be left behind. Instead, a generation has become ‘overqualified but underemployed’.
Of course, the chaotic ‘market’ model imposed on HE has played its part. Being largely dependent on student fees to secure their finances, as well as fund expansion projects, maximising the number of ‘bums on seats’ has become essential. University bosses have been able to earn large bonuses if they reach recruitment targets, but they’ve also relied on a lucrative overseas student market to bring in more cash.
All this has had a ‘bumping down’ effect on the queue to enter the labour market. Graduates have forced to trade down, replacing non graduates who in turn have been shoved further down the line. Meanwhile, employers, with a reservoir of qualified labour to choose from, have up-graded the entry requirements for other work. In otherwords, degrees are increasingly required to get you a job, but not necessarily to do it. Meanwhile moving through education become akin to running up a downwards escalator – you need to run faster just to stand still.
Yet universities have continued to argue that a ‘graduate premium’ – the difference between graduate and non-graduate earnings, continues to exist. This still seems to be at least partially true. The ONS estimated this to be £6500 for 2023, though there had been a significant (£1500) fall from the previous year and growing variations between the ‘value’ of different degree subjects and those from different universities.
More recently however, things have gone from bad to worse for new cohorts. In addition to the excessive demand for, there’s evidence of a fall in the supply of, graduate work, Technological change, like the introduction of automation has always resulted in major structural changes to employment, but many of the roles that disappeared (or been ‘hollowed out’) in the first round of automation, such as telephone operators, accounts clerks and typesetters, have generally not been considered to be ‘graduate work’.
But even if the ONS data still shows 67% of graduates progressing to ‘skilled’ employment, other evidence suggests they are now bearing the brunt of changes in the occupational structure, as employers start to use advances in AI to trim workforce size and in times of increasing economic uncertainties, prefer to hang on to existing staff rather than recruit new ones – US data shows that unemployment amongst college graduates is now higher than amongst the population generally, up from 4.5% to 5.8% over a year
Various surveys show the number of new entry-level UK jobs dropping by almost a third since the launch of ChatGPT – research by the job search site Adzuna, showing these now accounting for just 25% of openings in the UK, down from 28.9% in 2022. Although this potentially affects all recruitment, reports indicate an AI-powered drop in entry-level hiring has been particularly prevalent among major professional services firms. For example, KPMG has scaled back its most recent cohort of graduates by a third, Deloitte by 18%, EY by 11% and PwC by 6%.
With editing, research and report writing increasingly AI generated, many of the worst fears of journalistic staff are materialising, while alarm bells are beginning to sound amongst educational professionals, well used to fighting off cuts in provision, but never really having to seriously consider that their own jobs might fall victim in the race against the machine.
But UCAS figures continue to show record numbers of UK 18-year-olds have accepting places on first-degree courses at university in 2024, including record numbers of those from the most disadvantaged backgrounds. Maybe applicants consider there is more to obtaining a degree than just its labour market exchange value. Maybe, ‘going to uni’ has now become a normal part of many young people’s lives. But as universities continue to be blamed for graduate employment woes neither Tory or Labour governments have been able to come up with any really convincing alternatives. What price a graduate?
Education, Economy and Society 
UNIVERSITY AND COLLEGE GRADUATES IN UGANDA
PRINCE ALFRED
Like many university and college students worldwide, graduates in Uganda face uncertain futures. Whatever their academic qualifications, they are ‘challenged’ – as official explanations say – by under- if not un-employment. These stem from a combination of factors, including a mismatch between academic training and the skills demanded by the jobs market. This limits graduate access to resources due to social and economic inequalities.
‘KEY CHALLENGES’
High unemployment and underemployment: A substantial number of graduates do not find secure employment, with figures ranging from 15.2% according to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) to other estimates up to 80%. This is a consequence of the influx of graduates into the jobs market far exceeding available opportunities.
‘Skills mismatch’ means many graduates possess theoretical knowledge that is not directly applicable to workplaces. This limited experience hinders their employability.
Limited access to resources with outdated curricula, inadequate teaching and a shortage of qualified faculty impact the quality of education and graduate preparedness.
Many graduates are not even self-employed and many do not have the so-called ‘entreprenurial skills’ to create own jobs, let alone start-up capital or access to loans.
They also lack the social capital and networks that play a role in gaining employment, thus again perpetuating inequalities. In Uganda “Where are you from?” and “Who do you know?” are the usual questions asked by employers at interviews. These inquiries can be reinforced by the demand for diversity reporting by employers including the state.
Corruption and patronage are common. Most public and private sector jobs are sold to the highest bidders, leaving graduates from poor families struggling with endless unemployment because they can’t afford the money necessary to buy their way into a job.
Lastly but perhaps most importantly, to get a good public or private job in Uganda, you must be a cadre of the ruling National Resistance Movement or affiliated to it through a relative or friend. As most university graduates are not politically well connected, they remain unemployed.
‘ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES’
Curriculum Reforms: universities need to align their curricula with the present needs of the jobs market and future development plans for the country. They should emphasize practical skills and relevant knowledge through strengthening academy-business links. These should go beyond the usual ‘partnerships’ to include joint teaching and learning between universities and colleges on apprenticeships and placements.
Careers guidance could also include how to apply for start-up loans for businesses. Many students are already ‘entreprising’ in their own ways since their daily life involves ‘hustling and haggling’. This should be related to entrepreneur training for graduates to recognise and develop abilities they will use in business.
Investing in technology and digital literacy should be supported by including training in these areas. This should include familiarity with the AIs that are used to cut-back on remaining ‘graduate jobs’ but could enhance graduates’ abilities to leverage technology for learning and employment.
Curricular reforms in schools also working with colleges and universities could be loosened up so that if a child discovers his or her talent in science subjects and they are performing well in them, let them drop arts subjects as early as possible so that they concentrate on what they do best and vice versa in the case of talented artists.
Ultimately however, only confronting social and economic factors by addressing systemic inequalities would create a more equitable playing field for graduates seeking employment and better equip them to contribute to the country’s economic development while reducing the burden of unemployment. Yet such a conclusion is unlikely to be welcomed by examiners, employers or government.